ASSIGNMENT 1: CLARIFYING OUR ASSUMPTIONS

In this short preliminary assignment, we will explore some of the underlying assumptions we make when we try to model apparently random events probabilistically.

Read the articles handed out in class, "The Odds of That" and "Mind Over Matter." Also read Chapter 7 of the text book, and take the self-test at the end of the chapter. Write a short (1-2 page, typed, double-spaced) description of what it means for events to be independent of each other, and how this is represented in a mathematical probability model. Discuss an example from either of the articles, the deaths of the scientists in the first, or the random number generators in the second, with respect to the framework you have already explained.

Then find some other instance of potential randomness. This could be in a sports, health, or political section of a newspaper, in a magazine, or in any other source you can produce (e.g., the transcript of a news show). What is important is that someone is making a claim about seemingly connected events being really independent or vice versa. Discuss the merits of this claim, and explain what you think is the corresponding correct mathematical model, and why. This part of the assignment is open-ended; pick something that interests you, and persuade us that your point view is the correct one. (A minimum length for this section is 1-2 pages. You do not have to condense your analysis to fit this length, however. We care about quality, not length.) Please include copies of your source articles (if possible).

Extra Credit: Find the typo in "The Odds of That."

Advice for writing: Strunk & White's Elements of Style is a concise, useful writing guide. Write for an audience of your peers. Your classmates should find the finished product readable, clear, and informative. We may exchange papers in class, so you might want to show your writing to someone else beforehand.

References: "The Odds of That," by Lisa Belkin, New York Times magazine, August 11, 2002. "Science Probes Mystery of Mind over Matter," Sarah Gibb, Saskatoon Star Phoenix, September 14, 2002.