Here we will attempt to see how to simplify our epidemic models in the case of fast spreading non-lethal epidemics.
1. Suppose you are the school nurse at Van Nuys High, a high schools with 3000 students, and there has been a small out break of Strange Pox. So far there have only been 10 reported cases and you are witnessing an increase of about 2 cases per day over the last couple of days. You know from past experience that a case of strange pox last about a week and that a student's residual anti bodies will be strong enough to fend off a second bout with the disease for about a month after recovery. Model this epidemic as best as you can from this data.
2. After careful consideration you come to the conclusion that half the cases you are witnessing are being faked in oder to avoid going to class. Change your model assuming there is only one actual new of strange pox per day.
3. How many new cases of strange pox a day is what you might call the critical "worry about this disease" level?
4. Suppose there is a delay rate between exposure and infection of about a week. How does this affect your model.