# Week 8

Assigned: Mon. 11/6

Journal: It's final project time! Come up with three possible topics which you are interested in exploring statistically. For each, write up about a paragraph which outlines what you think you might do for the study (e.g. what survey you might send out, what data you might try to collect, what analysis you might perform). If you are having trouble finding a topic, you can surf the Chance course website, but ultimately, you should put your own spin on whatever project you choose. Exact details on what will be required for the project will be circulated soon.

Assigned: Wed. 11/8

Journal/Final Project: Write an official project proposal which indicates what you are planning to do for your final project. Include details such as what your hypothesis will be, what data you plan to collect, and how you will collect it. Note: your project must be approved before you may proceed, so make sure to put some thought into your proposal!! If you are working in a group, you can turn in one proposal for your group, but make sure that everyone's name is on it.

Problem: Consider the Coke/Pepsi Challenge in light of the Rogaine/Chiapreen discussion from Monday's class. Assume that Greg says, "I'm great. I can tell the difference between Coke and Pepsi with 85 percent accuracy. If this math thing doesn't work out, I'm thinking of being a professional taste-tester." But Emily comes along and says, "Don't quit your day job. I think you can only taste the difference with 60% accuracy." So Greg and Emily decide to have a Coke/Pepsi faceoff where Greg will have 10 tries to prove himself. Decide for yourself what you think a good cutoff number will be. In other words, pick a number n so that if Greg gets more than n of the trials right, he and Emily agree that he can claim to have an 85 percent taste-ability, and if he gets fewer than n right, Emily can claim he only has a 60 percent taste-ability. Use this number to calculate the following:

a. the probability of a false negative.

b. the probability of a true positive.

c. the probability of a false positvie.

d. the probability of a true negative.

How do all of these probabilities change as you make the cutoff number higher? Lower?

What happens to the numbers as we increase the number of trials?

Assigned: Fri. 11/10

Quiz Monday on the material from this week.

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