Risk Analysis: We carefully made some assessment of the Mad Cow Scare. Similar situation have arisen since then, for example the big Mad Salmon Scare. Research and analyze what the real risks involved in this health threat or other "risks" (as portrayed by the media, things like: terrorism, talking on a cell phone, or S.U.V. safety.).
Market Analysis: Since we've spent some time thinking about fair prices in an efficient market, I'd love it if we'd try and test this efficiency! Namely, devise a test to see whether the the probabilities asserted by the market are accurate. One can also test the opinions of various experts and their picks for various games, election outcomes, or stock prices, in order to test the merit of the no arbitrage opportunities principle. As we've seen, there are gobs of data out there to use in order to test your beliefs.
Make Something Random: Use probability and randomness to make something. We will see in class how to make random music. Take this further or invent and discuss some way to use randomness to produce poetry or pictures. You could also make and analyze a new game.
Analyze Data of Interest to You: This is very open topic. We will certainly discuss the notion of a "hot hand" and debate whether hot hands exist in various sports. Do there exist "hot hands" at Dartmouth? Sports data is great for projects since its easy to get and fun to analyze. Here an analysis of N.F.L's passer rating in the current chance news.
Conditional Probability Gaffs Find an opinion held by a natural or social scientist [or some other supposed "expert"] that is affected by conditional probability. Analyze and critique his position.
Voting Proposal We will discuss a method of analyzing voting strength in class. From this model, construct and defend a method for apportioning votes in a business or confederacy where not all members should have equal voice. You should discuss the strengths and weakensses of your model. You could also use the present-day Congress as your object of study.
Prophecy and Prescience Use your understanding of probability to investigate the verity [or lack of] in various accounts of prediction and prophecy. You could study anything from prophecies in the Judeo-Christian traditions to prophecies to modern psychics. Note that it would be better to investigate particular claims that appear to be "right on" rather than a statistical study of many claims by a single person, since we are looking for a probability-based project.